Talking about shocking counties, look to New Hampshire. Trump is up
by 3 percentage points in Grafton County. That’s amazing considering
Obama won it by a little less than 25 percentage points in 2012.
As the presidential race unfolds dramatically, the death penalty is
quietly having a successful night. The AP has called the vote on the
death penalty ballot initiative in Oklahoma; the voters there have
adopted a state constitutional amendment strengthening the punishment
there, guaranteeing the state the power to execute and the ability to
choose the means of execution. And Nebraska results are coming in. With
12 percent reporting, “repeal” leads in the vote on Referendum 426,
52-48. If that result holds, capital punishment will be reintroduced in
the state. The state’s legislature had eliminated it last year.
Clinton and Trump together have 96.0 percent of the vote right now —
third-party candidates have 4.0 percent. That’s about in line with
expectations, but the third-party vote may nevertheless be enough to
potentially have swung several swing states.
Nine states are deciding on marijuana legalization ballot
initiatives today. We’re spotlighting each during the course of the day.
Here are the states whose polls close at 10 p.m. Eastern:
Montana
If the ballot measure in Montana
passes, it will repeal the three-patient limit for medical marijuana
providers, giving qualifying patients easier access to the drug. Voters
have had a wild ride with marijuana legalization in Montana. Medical
marijuana was legalized in 2004, and the rules were amended in 2011 to
stop advertisements for it and limit the scope of the business for
providers and prescribers. Advocates tried unsuccessfully to repeal it
in 2012. Then, after the 2011 bill was tied up in courts for five years,
it went into effect in August.
We’ve seen only one poll
for this measure, and it shows the measure losing by a 7 percentage
point margin. With only one poll to look at, though, nothing is assured.
Nevada
If the ballot measure in Nevada
passes, adults age 21 and older will be able to possess up to 1 ounce
of marijuana and consume it privately. Adults who do not live within 25
miles of a marijuana retail store would be allowed to grow up to six
plants. Medical marijuana is currently legal in the state. A 15 percent
tax on the drug would be spent first on enforcing the measure; remaining
funds would go to K-12 education. As in many other states voting this
into law, current medical marijuana facilities in Nevada would be
encouraged to transition into recreational marijuana facilities.
All seven state polls we’ve seen this year suggest that the measure will pass.
As a reminder, the odds you see on the right-hand side of this page are based only on pre-election projections and called states.
Clinton isn’t really a 73 percent favorite right now — Trump holds
narrow leads in many swing states, some of which are likely to be called
for him eventually, so her actual odds are probably lower.
With 17 percent of precincts reporting in Michigan, Trump is ahead by
more than 4 percentage points statewide. One county’s early returns
look particularly surprising: Trump leads Wayne County, which includes
Detroit, by about 3 percentage points with 11 percent of precincts
reporting. That result would be wildly different from those in the pasttwo presidential elections, when Barack Obama won the county with more than 70 percent of the vote.
With the rising chance of a Trump presidency, there is also a very
outside chance of a three-week Democratic majority. How would that come
about? On the off-chance that the Democrats can take 50 Senate seats
while Trump wins the presidency, the new Congress will be sworn in on
Jan. 3. The new president doesn’t take office until Jan. 20, giving the
sitting vice president — Democrat Joe Biden — three weeks to cast the
tie-breaking Senate vote.
Betting Markets Missed Brexit. They Might Have Missed Trump.
Prices in betting markets implied that chances of a Brexit were just 15 percent heading into that vote, but then the U.K. voted to leave the European Union.
Heading into today, betting markets gave Trump about a 20 percent chance of winning the presidency. He’s up to 55 percent now.
A lot of the important decisions about elections are made by states,
which means there’s a lot of variation. One example of that for those
looking at early returns is when polls close. For states in the Eastern
time zone, some closed as early as 6 p.m. and a few as late as 9 p.m. Is
there a partisan pattern?
It turns out there is — as the chart below shows, when we look at the
states that close later, the percentage of votes won by Mitt Romney in
2012 shifts way down. We should be careful about making causal claims
— this pattern could be caused by any number of factors. But it’s an
interesting pattern nonetheless.
Markets are reacting very negatively as Trump is exceeding
expectations in the electoral map tonight. One thing to watch is the
Mexican peso. As Trump’s chances of winning improve — and thus the
potential for negative trade and immigration policies relating to Mexico
rises — markets would adjust by devaluing the peso and showing declines
in Mexican stock markets. Sure enough, the Mexican peso has depreciated sharply since 8 p.m. eastern time. (Or, in other words, the Mexican peso-to-U.S. dollar exchange rate has risen.)
Stating the obvious, but it’s very hard for Clinton to win the
Electoral College if she loses Michigan along with Ohio, North Carolina
and Florida none of which look particularly safe for her right now. Even
if she were to hold the rest of her firewall and win Nevada, she’d be
stuck at 263 electoral votes and would need to do something unexpected
like flip Arizona or Georgia into her column.
Increased turnout of rural voters for Trump could be an interesting
subplot to emerge from this election. In addition to places like Michigan,
which saw a surge in rural voters, preliminary exit poll numbers in
Virginia, which has yet to be called, indicate that Trump is
outperforming Mitt Romney in the more rural central and western parts of
the state 29 percent to 23 percent. That could be helping Trump keep
the race close with Clinton, whose strength lies in the more urban
environs of Northern Virginia.
In Virginia, Clinton is now down by just 5,000 votes with 14 percent
of precincts still remaining. Clinton still has a good chance of winning
the state.
Clinton is leading by only a percentage point in Wayne County,
Michigan. That’s a county Obama won by 48 percentage points. Either that
result is wrong, a lot of the vote in Detroit (which is in Wayne
County) is out, or the map is looking very different than it used to.
As a point of context — one reason people find Trump’s competitive
margins across a wide range of swing states so surprising is because
exit polls showed Clinton beating her pre-election polls in most
states, instead of underperforming them. Remember not to pay too much
attention to them next time around.
Back in late September, our editor-in-chief, Nate Silver, wrote
that Clinton is leading in exactly the states she needed to win — and
that it wasn’t such a good position to be in. Now we can see why, as her
firewall might be crumbling: According to the New York Times’s live
forecast, Clinton has below a 60 percent chance of winning in
Pennsylvania and Michigan, the two most electoral-vote-rich states in that firewall. She could still win them both; if she doesn’t, she has a much tougher path to winning the election.
One of the biggest splits in voting behavior this cycle has been
between college-educated and non-college-educated white Americans. This
map of American Community Survey data on educational attainment uses
light orange to show states with lower rates of college degree holders.
All of the states with lower rates of college education that have been
called so far have gone to Trump: Wyoming, Alabama, Tennessee,
Mississippi, Oklahoma, West Virginia, Indiana and Kentucky. Nevada, when
called, may well buck that trend.
Michigan — a state where Trump leads by 3 points based on votes
counted so far — is a state that ought to be making Democrats nervous.
With lots of white, working-class voters and lots of undecideds, it was underrated as a swing state. Clinton will gain a ton more votes in Detroit, but the Upshot’s projections have the state as very nearly being a tossup now, and it’s probably a bigger risk to Clinton than Pennsylvania.
Trump’s lead is down to a percentage point in Virginia, with 82
percent of the vote reporting. There are still enough votes outstanding
for Clinton to make up this margin. But this doesn’t look like the big
lead that Clinton would have wanted. It looks like the race will be
close.
Early returns in Michigan are not great for Clinton. Trump is winning by big margins in rural areas and by 2 percentage points overall. The New York Times’s live forecast,
which takes into account where the votes are coming from, is now giving
Clinton just a 54 percent chance of winning the state and a 58 percent
chance of winning the election overall. Before votes were counted,
Clinton had a 94 percent chance of winning in Michigan according to the Times and a 79 percent chance according to our forecast.
Our live forecast
currently gives Clinton an 83 percent chance of winning the state of
Michigan, but there are some interesting things to pull out of the exit
polls in that state that speak to the strength of Trump’s candidacy. In
2008 and 2012, rural voters accounted for only about 19 percent of the
vote in the state, but according to preliminary exit poll results, they
account for 27 percent of the state’s vote. And Trump does well with
those rural voters, winning them by about 15 points.
We’ve been talking all night about the historic gender gap that we
are likely going to see come out of this election, with women favoring
Clinton over Trump in huge numbers — it’s news to no one that Trump has
been a controversial figure in no small part because of his comments
about women.
And yet, we’re seeing some interesting figures coming out of the
Florida exit polls — Clinton isn’t doing quite as well with women there
as she is in other key states, which might be one reason the race in
Florida is so close. According to preliminary exit poll results in
Florida, Clinton is winning 51 percent of women, compared with 53
percent in Michigan and New Hampshire; 54 percent in Ohio, Wisconsin,
Georgia and Colorado; 55 percent in North Carolina; and 58 percent in
Pennsylvania
STATE
SHARE OF WOMEN WON BY CLINTON
Pennsylvania
58%
North Carolina
55
Ohio
54
Wisconsin
54
Georgia
54
Colorado
54
Michigan
53
New Hampshire
53
Florida
51
Clinton has won just 51 percent of women in Florida
The latest results seem a bit more favorable for Trump — our live
model puts Clinton’s chances at 73 percent, down from 78 percent earlier
tonight, and other models have likewise moved back toward Trump.
Investors don’t seem to be happy about that — Bloomberg’s Joe Weisenthal
notes that markets have fallen sharply over the past few minutes.
That’s consistent with recent research finding that markets would prefer a Clinton victory.
The Upshot’s calculator has Clinton projected to eventually win the popular vote by 3 to 4 percentage points — right in line with where national polls had the race.
And yet, they show her winning only 290 or so electoral votes, which
obviously means that Trump has a decent shot to win the Electoral
College. That potentially seems to validate our finding that Clinton was in a worse position in the Electoral College than the popular vote, since her coalition is not concentrated in swing states.
Republicans win Senate races in Kansas, North Dakota, and South
Dakota. Our model now gives Republicans a 69 percent chance of retaining
control of the Senate.
Chuck Schumer, the incumbent Democratic senator from New York, will
keep his seat. Our model now gives Democrats a 31 percent chance of
winning control of the Senate.
Trump wins Kansas, North Dakota, South Dakota, Wyoming, Texas,
Nebraska, Nebraska’s 1st District, and Nebraska’s 3rd District. Our
model now gives him a 25 percent chance of winning the election.
Despite a broad decline in its use nationwide, the death penalty may be bolstered in a few states after tonight’s vote.
According to pre-election polling, California, Nebraska and Oklahoma
looked poised to retain, reinstate and reinforce capital punishment,
respectively. And now some real results are starting to roll in. In
Oklahoma — the state with the highest per-capita execution rate since
1976 — the “yes” votes on State Question 776 currently have a 66-34
lead, with 11 percent reporting. A “yes” vote would amend the state’s
constitution, affirming the state’s right to execute and choose the
method of execution.
We’re in something of a state of suspended animation right now. The
results so far are pretty well in line with pre-election polls, which
showed a close race in many swing states and Clinton more often having
the lead. But the problem with having a lot of narrow leads is that you
don’t always convert them to wins, and so far no major states have
fallen to Clinton.
While the state of Colorado has already legalized recreational marijuana and statewide ballots there don’t feature any questions about marijuana legalization, the ballot in the county of Pueblo sure does. Voters are weighing two marijuana issues there today. If issue 300 passes, voters will ban recreational marijuana sales in the city. If issue 200 passes, all marijuana facilities across the county will be shut down by Oct. 31, 2017.
Here’s a potential sign of a shift: Barack Obama won the township of
Bradley, Maine — in the largely rural, 2nd Congressional District — by
12 points in 2012. Trump just won it by 10 points tonight. Maine splits
its electoral votes by congressional district, so more results like that
would put Trump on his way to winning one electoral vote there.
It’s possible that Clinton will win Ohio while losing Florida, which
might seem like a huge surprise given the narrative of the race, but the
fact is that the two states weren’t polling all that far apart. Clinton
trailed Trump in Ohio by only 1.9 points in our pre-election forecast and led him in Florida by only 0.6 points.
The New Bellwethers: High Latino Turnout In Maricopa County Could Turn Arizona Blue
We have arrived at the third and final video in our “New Bellwethers”
series. Throughout Election Day, FiveThirtyEight’s senior political
writer Clare Malone has been exploring counties in key states where
Clinton and Trump are polling very close to how they are nationally. Our
last stop: Maricopa County, Arizona.
If you’re just joining us, the second episode of “The New
Bellwethers” video series — Berks County, Pennsylvania — can be viewed here.
Trump and Clinton are neck and neck in Florida. The issue of
immigration is a crucial — and divisive — issue in the state. No
surprise, exit polls indicate that the candidates’ voters have radically
different views on the impact that immigrants have on the country
today: 50 percent of Trump voters believe immigrants hurt the country,
while a whopping 83 percent of Clinton voters say the opposite, that
immigrants help.
Nine states are deciding on marijuana legalization ballot
initiatives today. We’re spotlighting each during the course of the day.
Arizona’s polls close at 9 p.m. Eastern.
If the ballot measure in Arizona
passes, adults age 21 and older will be able to grow up to six
marijuana plants in their residence, possess up to 1 ounce of marijuana
and consume it privately. Medical marijuana is already legal in Arizona,
and the existing pot industry could adapt to fill the recreational
market. The retail industry would be capped at 10 percent of the number
of liquor store licenses in the state. A 15 percent sales tax would
cover implementation and regulation costs; any extra would benefit
schools and the state health service, and cities would be allowed to
pass their own restrictions.
According to the seven state polls we’ve seen in 2016, it looks like a toss-up. Three polls say the measure has a slight chance of winning, and four say the reverse.
Oh-me-oh, oh-my-oh, what’s up with Ohio?
Rob Portman is projected to win the Senate race, which we expected,
and right now our live forecast is showing Trump with a 68 percent
chance of winning the state. A quick dive into the state’s exit polls
tells us that a plurality of voters there, 42 percent, said that being
able to bring needed change was the most important attribute they looked
for in a candidate. This would seem to favor Trump, not Clinton.
Clinton also appears to be struggling with union households in the
state; she and Trump are splitting that vote, whereas President Obama
won that group by 23 points in 2012.
The question remaining in Florida is how much vote is left in the
southeastern part of the state. Trump is ahead right now by a little
over 100,000 votes. That is a lot of votes to make up, though it is
possible for her to do it.
Betting markets — and The Upshot’s statistical model —
now show Trump as slightly more likely than not to win Florida,
expecting that he may pick up just enough votes in the Florida Panhandle
and southwestern Florida to make up for what will be further Clinton
gains in Broward County and Miami-Dade County.
What we’re waiting for in Virginia is results from the northern part
of the state to come in. Right now, Trump is leading in the state by
about 5 percentage points. There probably are enough votes left in the
north for her to make up that deficit, but this race is definitely far
closer than Clinton wanted it to be.
Political parties, partisan groups and nonpartisan organizations have
sent election observers around the nation. One of them is Richard
Burns, a New York nonprofit management consultant who has a law degree.
He volunteered as a legal observer today — his fourth election doing so —
in Pennsylvania as part of the Clinton Victory Counsel. Compared with
the reports of problems in Pennsylvania, including reports from some voters that the machines changed Trump votes to Clinton ones, Burns found the Friends Meeting House in Lancaster calm.
“There were a number of recently naturalized citizens, middle-aged
adults, beaming and saying this was their first time voting,” Burns said
in an interview earlier today from the polling location. Lancaster is
in Amish Country, a region that has seen a massive growth in the Latino population, which outstripped the Amish as of the 2010 Census.
One thing seems fairly clear, as we wait for the first swing state
dominoes to fall: If Trump wins the Electoral College tonight, and it
remains something of a long shot, it’s going to be with narrow wins in a
large number of swing states instead of something more emphatic. And
it’s going to be a very long night, possibly including an Electoral College-popular vote split.
As I told Clare in our video chat
a few minutes ago, all the exit poll data so far has made me really
despondent about the state of our politics. The gulfs are widening along
gender, education,
class, and urban/rural divides. This is, of course, nothing new — we’ve
been talking about it for months — but I suppose Election Day is
turning into a big, clarifying, heartbreaking reminder.
A Republican Governor In Vermont? It’s Not As Surprising As It Seems
In Vermont, Republican Phil Scott is currently beating Sue Minter by 14 percentage points with 15 percent of the vote in. The race hasn’t been called, and with few votes in from heavily Democratic Burlington
yet, that makes sense. But should Scott hold on to win, that victory
wouldn’t be as surprising. Yes, gubernatorial elections are increasingly tracking trends
in presidential elections. But paradoxically, on-cycle elections for
governor have actually been less nationalized than gubernatorial
elections held in midterm years. Maybe that’s because on-cycle elections
attract more voters, including more moderate voters. That could be good
news for some gubernatorial candidates today, including Montana
Democrat Steve Bullock and Missouri Democrat Chris Koster.
Clinton trailed Trump by 10 points in our Missouri presidential forecast
— so we’ll be looking toward whether Democratic senate candidate Jason
Kander can run 10 points better than Clinton tonight. So far, he’s
toeing the line, outrunning Clinton by 9 points based on returns so far
from Jackson County, which includes Kansas City, Missouri, and its
suburbs.
Richard Shelby, the incumbent Republican senator from Alabama, will
keep his seat. Our model now gives Republicans a 56 percent chance of
retaining control of the Senate.
In ABC News’s preliminary exit polls, Clinton has a clear advantage
over Trump in favorability ratings. In none of the states that were
polled, however, did a majority of voters view either candidate
favorably.
Trump’s lead is climbing in Florida as more of the Panhandle is
reporting. He’s now up by about 65,000 votes or 0.75 percentage points.
This could end up coming down to the wire.
As we all stare intently at results from Florida — it’s essentially
tied right now — here’s an interesting tidbit from the exit polls there:
Voters who consider the economy the most important issue facing the
country favor Clinton over Trump by a 50-43 margin. Voters who are most
concerned about immigration, meanwhile, went for Trump by a whopping 38
points, 68-30.
Polling by the firm Latino Decisions on election eve found that Florida’s Latino population
had cast an early ballot for or planned to vote for Clinton over Trump
67-31. In 2012, Obama bested Romney among Florida Latinos by 58-40. The
state has a large Cuban-American population that has trended Republican,
but that was dissatisfied with voting for Trump. Still, nationally, the
firm shows Clinton winning the Latino vote 79-18, a significantly higher margin than in Florida.
The Florida results also showed Senator Marco Rubio reaping a lower
share of the Latino vote than his challenger, Patrick Murphy, in a 40-58
split, although Rubio led in statewide polls and has now won the race according to preliminary exit polls.
Nine states are deciding on marijuana legalization ballot
initiatives today. We’re spotlighting each during the course of the day.
Arkansas’s polls close at 8:30 p.m. Eastern.
If the ballot measure in Arkansas passes, medical marijuana use for patients with qualifying conditions will become legal. A medical marijuana initiative was defeated
in Arkansas in 2012. The marijuana would be taxed, with half the
revenue going to vocational training and the other half divided among
the general fund and other state programs.
We’ve seen three state polls
this year: One showed voters slightly in favor, one showed voters
slightly against, and the third showed voters overwhelmingly in favor.
So there’s a slight lean toward legalization, but nothing’s certain yet.
Marco Rubio, the incumbent Republican senator from Florida, will keep
his seat. Our model now gives Republicans a 56 percent chance of
retaining control of the Senate.
This is why it’s important to wait for the Panhandle to report in
Florida. Trump has just jumped into the lead in Florida by 12,000 votes.
Still a lot of votes to be counted in that state.
Clinton leads in the Electoral College 68-37 based on states called so far, and our live election night forecast
is becoming slightly more confident in its predictions as the
candidates bring in states from their respective bases. Clinton’s
chances of winning are up to 78 percent in the forecast.
It’s Usually The Senators Like Kirk Who Lose, Increasing Polarization
As Nate mentioned, Mark Kirk just became the first incumbent senator
to lose his bid for re-election. Kirk has long been a top Democratic
target: In 2010, he won the seat formerly held by Barack Obama in
deep-blue Illinois. Outside spending to save him was relatively limited. During his time in the Senate, Kirk has cut a relatively moderate profile: He received an “F” rating from the NRA, is pro-choice, and among the Senate’s most centrist Republicans.
In that, Kirk fits a pattern. In recent years, the incumbent senators
who have lost have been disproportionately moderates whose partisanship
puts them at odds with their state. In 2012, the Democrats took out
Republican moderates like Massachusetts’ Sen. Scott Brown — and Brown
was the third most liberal Republican in the prior Congress.
In 2014, Republicans returned the favor, beating moderate Democratic
incumbents in Alaska, Arkansas, Louisiana, and North Carolina. Alaska’s
Mark Begich was the 39th most liberal Democratic Senator, and the other
three incumbents were still more moderate. This replacement of moderates
is one key driver of the polarization we see in the halls of Congress
today: moderates whose partisanship doesn’t align with their state find
it hard to keep their seats. (A team of University of Pennsylvania students—Jackson Gu, Max
Kaufman, Thomas Munson, Owen O’Hare, Liz Sanchez—helped with this post.)
Perhaps the most shocking result so far is in Missouri. Democrat Jason Kander looks to be running very strongly in the exit polls. That would be a huge pickup for Democrats.
ABC News has called the Illinois Senate race for Tammy Duckworth,
making this the first pickup for either party so far tonight. Republican
Mark Kirk previously held the seat. The call isn’t a surprise —
Duckworth was up 12 points in our forecast
— but it’s something of an indignity for an incumbent senator to have a
race called against him immediately after polls close. Kirk’s problems
went from bad to worse following a debate where he mocked Duckworth’s heritage.
In preliminary exit polling from ABC News, more voters said they were
bothered a lot by Trump’s treatment of women than by Clinton’s emails.
However, state by state, the numbers ranged widely, with more voters in
Arizona and Texas bothered by the emails.
STATE
CLINTON’S EMAILS
TRUMP’S TREATMENT OF WOMEN
DIFFERENCE
Virginia
42%
53%
+11
New Mexico
44
54
+10
Florida
44
53
+9
Pennsylvania
44
53
+9
Iowa
44
51
+7
Michigan
43
50
+7
New Hampshire
46
53
+7
Wisonsin
45
52
+7
Ohio
46
48
+2
Nevada
46
47
+1
Arizona
49
48
-1
Texas
50
43
-7
National
45
51
+6
Preliminary exit poll: Are you bothered a lot by …
NBC News says that New Hampshire and Pennsylvania are too early to
call. That is excellent news for Clinton. She is leading in both. Trump
likely needs to win at least one of those two states if he wants to win.
According to exit polls from ABC, 36 percent of Pennsylvania voters
say society gives more advantages to whites than to minorities.
Thirty-one percent said society favors minorities more than whites, and
the other third said neither group is favored. With Clinton holding her
own among nonwhite voters and Trump prevailing with whites, this could
add to the societal divide in the state.
James Lankford, the incumbent Republican senator from Oklahoma, will
keep his seat. Our model now gives Republicans a 54 percent chance of
retaining control of the Senate.
Right now, Clinton is up in Florida by more than 2 percentage points.
The key counties look good for her. Keep in mind, though, that there
are still plenty of votes to be counted in the Republican-leaning
Panhandle.
New Jersey, which was just called for Clinton by ABC News, is the
closest thing to a swing state that’s been called so far: Clinton had
“only” a 96.9 percent chance of winning it, according to our
pre-election forecast.
Trump was a 97.5 percent favorite in Indiana, which was called earlier
in the night. South Carolina — which other networks have called for
Trump but ABC has not yet — is a little more competitive, however, as
our forecast had put Trump’s odds at 89.7 percent there.
If you’re puzzling at the results in Virginia — more than a fifth of
precincts are reporting and Trump leads by more than 10 points — don’t
expect an upset there just yet. There’s still a ton of the vote left to
report in Northern Virginia, specifically the heavily Democratic
Washington D.C. suburbs.
Indiana and West Virginia have both been called for Trump. This isn’t
surprising, but it does warrant a moment of thought. Until 2004, West
Virginia was one of the most reliably Democratic states in presidential
elections. Indiana has tended to lean Republican in presidential
contests, going back to about 1968 (with the notable exception of
Obama’s victory there in 2008). But it’s also home to moderate Democrats
like Evan Bayh, who is competing for a Senate seat and was once
considered a rising star in the Democratic Party. West Virginia is still
represented by conservative, pro-gun Democrat Joe Manchin in the Senate
— who has run on his opposition to the president whose party label he
shares. The easy calls in Indiana and West Virginia for Trump probably
don’t signal anything big about tonight’s presidential contest — but
they do signal the kinds of changes that have happened in the two
parties over the past few decades.
Not a surprise, but Clinton is really overperforming a typical
Democrat in wealthy, highly educated areas. She’s winning Loudoun
County, Virginia, by 16 points, for example, when Obama won it by just 4
points four years ago. If anything, these demographic shifts look even
more profound in the vote so far than they did in the pre-election
polls.
I’m a little worried about relying too much on bellwether counties
for projecting results in Florida because the vote patterns in the
state may have changed a lot since 2012. Still, Clinton is up by 10
percentage points in early returns from Hillsborough County. That’s good
for her, but again, we need to wait for more data.
Georgia is still too close to call. Our final forecast
gave Trump a roughly 80 percent chance to win the deep-red state. But
Georgia has been undergoing a major demographic shift, with a growing
share of African-Americans and Hispanics. This change is apparent in the
exit polls from today: 39 percent of Georgia’s electorate is nonwhite.
Marijuana Votes In Maine, Massachusetts And North Dakota
Nine states are deciding on marijuana legalization ballot
initiatives today. We’re spotlighting each during the course of the day.
Here’s the batch of states whose polls close or start to close at 8
p.m. Eastern:
Maine
If the ballot measure in Maine
passes, adults age 21 and older will be allowed to possess up to 2.5
ounces of marijuana and consume it privately. Medical marijuana is
already legal in the state.
A 10 percent tax would be placed on marijuana sales.
According to the three state polls we’ve seen, it looks like the vote will be close. All three have the measure favored to pass, but not by much.
Massachusetts
If the ballot measure in Massachusetts
passes, adults age 21 and older will be able to possess up to 10 ounces
of marijuana, grow up to six plants for personal use and consume
marijuana privately. Its use would be regulated similar to how the state
handles alcoholic beverages. Medical marijuana is already legal in the state.
If the measure passes, the state will create the Cannabis Control
Commission to oversee marijuana legalization. A 3.75 percent tax would
be placed on marijuana sales. Revenue would be placed in a Marijuana
Regulation Fund to pay for administrative costs. Cities and towns would
be allowed to add a local tax of up to 2 percent.
Of the nine state polls we’ve seen in 2016, nine have the measure passing and two have it failing.
North Dakota
A yes vote on the ballot measure in North Dakota
is a vote to legalize medical marijuana to treat specific debilitating
medical conditions. A similar measure failed to reach the North Dakota
ballot in 2012 after thousands of fraudulent signatures were found.
What’s the outlook? It’s not clear at all. No official poll has been
done on marijuana legalization in the state in two years, and I haven’t
found any polling on it.
One more note on education: Preliminary exit polls in Indiana
indicate Clinton lost among voters without a college degree by 23
points. Among college graduates, however, she lost by just 4 points, and
she won handily among voters with graduate degrees. Exact vote shares
are different in other states that have reported, but the same basic
pattern holds.
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